Dangers of overproduction

Dangers of overproduction 

Association football (soccer) used to be a throwback, lagging behind wider societal and economic developments. Now its at the forefront of change, showing us what the future holds. One can learn a lot from the business of football; in many respects, it is far better organized and more professional than other industries. That's why I follow with interest the merry-go-round of every transfer period: the rumours, the gossip, the moves, the expenditure. It's fascinating to see how mobile football professionals have become and the conditions that trigger mobility, price increases and attraction.
This summer, I was particularly intrigued by the fate of established players: how many high achievers and earners have become surplus to requirements at their clubs, which are desperate to offload them but appear not to be able to do so. In many major clubs, there is at least one big name that has been sidelined with little hope of return or escape.
This used to be the fate of many young, talented players who left the club of their early successes too soon to join another, usually major club, where they encountered higher competition. We used to hear about so-and-so who had been full of promise but nowadays just warms the bench of a big stadium. That many established, successful players have joined them, often despite their astronomical wages, is a new phenomenon.
One reason for that is the overproduction of new talent that has to be sold on. Many lesser clubs rely on this not only for their finances but also for having an ambitious team, hungry for success and personal advancement. Every year we welcome new stars from all continents, players who join the ranks of the highly valued and highly paid. And these new stars are not as naïve and vulnerable as in the past. After all, most have the same agents and managers as the older stars. So, managers can choose on whom to rely and are less dependent on the established players in the club.
This could be construed as a positive development: a cleansing and rationalization of the footballing human resources. On the other hand, however, there is overproduction (and probably not just an epidemic of it), that pushes everything up: transfer prices and volumes, mobility and failure. There are just too many professional footballers at the moment and their number or wages are not expected to drop. If clubs continue to buy and sell at the current rate (and why shouldn't they), we are going to see even more high earners doing very little.
It would be interesting to compare this situation with the housing boom we are currently having in many countries. It appears that there is demand especially for housing and moreover of an increasingly higher quality. So, we are building like mad, driving prices up even for less desirable properties. There's no doubt that we are overproducing because we can. Conditions seem to justify it, just like in football. But what can be the consequences? If the football industry collapses, it will not have the same impact as similar trouble in the housing market.