Tuesday 3 January 2017

Jevons's paradox

Jevons's paradox

For some time I'd been worried that the extension of the recent extension of the A4 motorway next to my home in Delft would disprove Jevons's paradox but I can sleep easily now: increased capacity has led to more traffic jams. Initially, having the A4 next to the A13 on the other side of Delft seemed to work. Motorists on both motorways seemed delighted, as they had few problems with the traffic jams that used to plague the A13. Still, it didn't take long for probably worse jams to develop on the A4, which have now become an acknowledged problem. Some even suspect that the initial reduction had less to do with yet another motorway in the Netherlands and more with the effects of the credit crunch. So, once again, a new motorway and increased capacity mean increased affordances to create the same old problems.

One could view a different news item from today in a similar manner: hospitals appear to overspend on their accommodation. This conclusion is based on the ratio of production to square meters, so one should be cautious about it but I wonder if it's also related to Jevons's paradox. In recent years many hospitals had the opportunity to renovate or even make completely new buildings. It would be interesting to see if building activity created some capacity to spend more on accommodation. It often seems to be the case.


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