Simple calculations

Simple calculations 

New year, new decade (yes, I know that it actually starts next year but everybody keeps ignoring this convention), so lots of numbers to tell us what happens, for example this little overview:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2316671-nederland-werd-in-jaren-10-drukker-en-ouder-inkomens-groeiden-met-8-procent.html
The beauty of such numbers is that one can make simple calculations that tell more than the numbers themselves. For example, the population of the Netherlands appears to have grown by 700.000. It's a substantial number but it's growth in a decade, so it's 70.000 per year. If we link this to the much-advertised housing shortage in the country, it doesn't seem that bad. Assuming that a dwelling is shared by two persons (the household size in the Netherlands being 2,2 persons on average), we need to build an extra 35.000 homes per year. This doesn't seem beyond the capacities of both the building construction industry and the country (in terms of space). In fact, the same overview states that 366.000 dwellings were actually built in the decade. So, what's the problem?
In the same overview, the total number of dwellings in the Netherlands is reported at 7,8 million. According to data from the same source (https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82905ned/table?ts=1578310186602), the number of private households in the country is just over 7,9 million. It's not a bad match: it suggests that we need to build just 100.000 dwellings more. I appreciate that the number is not insignificant (it's the output of the Dutch construction industry in three years) but it's a far cry from the dramatic pronouncements one usually reads about the housing shortage in the Netherlands. By increasing production to 40.000 or 45.000 dwellings per year, the problem could be easily solved soon - unless of course the urgency to build more has reasons other than providing shelter to the inhabitants of the country.

Housing statistics

Housing statistics 

Early days of the new year, so it's time for the statistics of the previous year. Concerning the built environment, the Dutch news is that house sales have continued to increase but less spectacularly, so specialists expect that it will soon even out. There have been so many sales recently that in many municipalities there are few houses available for sale and mortgage rates are expected to increase. By the way, everyone seems happy that house prices have increased once again.

These subjects have been integral parts of the national psyche as long as I can remember. With the Dutch system of mortgaged house ownership, it's not surprising that mortgage rates and conditions are important. Mortgage debt levels determine quite a lot for both the individual and the whole society. On the other hand, people do not seem to realise what growing housing prices for the entire building stock mean. If they keep going up, it's good - that's the general tenet and it's worrying that nobody seems to challenge its sanity.

As for buying and selling houses, real estate agents used to say that the average Dutch person moves house every seven years, not always for practical reasons like family extensions or job changes. It seemed like a self-stimulating system: let's buy each other's houses, especially as soon as more houses come on the market. Aspiration, advancement and improvement are apparently much more important than the cost and trouble involved - or is it simply that people get bored with what they have and go shopping for houses like they do for clothes?